Estimated Probability of Competing in Athletics Beyond the High School Interscholastic Level (page 2)

Men's Ice Hockey

• Approximately 11 in 100, or about 11 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic ice hockey players will go on to play men's ice hockey at a NCAA member institution.
• Less than 1 in 27, or about 3.7 percent, of NCAA senior male ice hockey players will get drafted by a National Hockey League (NHL) team.
• Less than one in 300, or approximately 0.32 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic ice hockey will eventually be drafted by an NHL team.

Men's Soccer

• Less than three in 50, or about 5.5 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic soccer players will go on to play men's soccer at a NCAA member institution.
• Less than one in 50, or about 1.7 percent, of NCAA senior male soccer players will be drafted by a Major League Soccer (MLS) team.
• Approximately one in 1,250, or approximately 0.07 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic soccer will eventually be drafted by an MLS team.

Methodology

To calculate the estimated probability of competing in athletics beyond the high school interscholastic level, data from several sources were combined. First, the estimated number of high school student-athletes participating interscholastically in the sports having a major professional league in the United States was obtained from the National Federation of State High School Associations. To calculate the number of high school seniors participating interscholastically in those sports, the total number of high school student-athletes participating was divided by 3.5. This figure was used because some high schools are three-year high schools while others are four-year high schools.

The estimated number of NCAA student-athletes competing in the sports with major professional leagues in the United States was obtained from the NCAA's 1982-06 Participation Statistics Report. To estimate the number of NCAA roster positions in these sports available to an incoming freshmen class, the total number of NCAA student-athletes participating was divided by 3.5. This figure was used because current player attrition will leave more roster positions open than would be expected due to normal graduation. To estimate the number of NCAA senior student-athletes participating in those sports, the total number of NCAA student-athletes participating was divided by 4.5. This figure was used because student-athletes participating in these sports often red shirt and therefore are on the team for five years. The number of college student-athletes drafted by the major professional sport leagues in the United States was calculated using the most recent draft data for each league.

To calculate the probability of a high school senior going on to participate for a NCAA institution in these sports, the estimated number of open NCAA roster positions was divided by the estimated number of high school seniors participating interscholastically in these sports. To calculate the probability of a NCAA senior student-athlete being drafted by a professional team in these sports, the number of NCAA student-athletes drafted into these professional leagues was divided by the estimated number of NCAA senior student-athletes participating in these sports. To calculate the probability of a high school senior student-athlete eventually being drafted by a professional team in these sports, the number of NCAA senior student-athletes drafted by a United States professional league in these sports was divided by the estimated number of high school seniors participating interscholastically in these sports. All probabilities were multiplied by 100 to convert them to percentages.

Obviously, many assumptions and estimations are made in the process of calculating these figures. Therefore, the reader should not consider these figures to be exact, but instead should view these figures as educated calculations.