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Estimated Probability of Competing in Athletics Beyond the High School Interscholastic Level (page 2)

— National Association for Sport and Physical Education
Updated on Jun 10, 2010

Methodology

To calculate the estimated probability of competing in athletics beyond the high school interscholastic level, data from several sources were combined. First, the estimated number of high school student-athletes participating interscholastically in the sports having a major professional league in the United States was obtained from the National Federation of State High School Associations. To calculate the number of high school seniors participating interscholastically in those sports, the total number of high school student-athletes participating was divided by 3.5. This figure was used because some high schools are three-year high schools while others are four-year high schools.

The estimated number of NCAA student-athletes competing in the sports with major professional leagues in the United States was obtained from the NCAA's 1982-06 Participation Statistics Report. To estimate the number of NCAA roster positions in these sports available to an incoming freshmen class, the total number of NCAA student-athletes participating was divided by 3.5. This figure was used because current player attrition will leave more roster positions open than would be expected due to normal graduation. To estimate the number of NCAA senior student-athletes participating in those sports, the total number of NCAA student-athletes participating was divided by 4.5. This figure was used because student-athletes participating in these sports often red shirt and therefore are on the team for five years. The number of college student-athletes drafted by the major professional sport leagues in the United States was calculated using the most recent draft data for each league.

To calculate the probability of a high school senior going on to participate for a NCAA institution in these sports, the estimated number of open NCAA roster positions was divided by the estimated number of high school seniors participating interscholastically in these sports. To calculate the probability of a NCAA senior student-athlete being drafted by a professional team in these sports, the number of NCAA student-athletes drafted into these professional leagues was divided by the estimated number of NCAA senior student-athletes participating in these sports. To calculate the probability of a high school senior student-athlete eventually being drafted by a professional team in these sports, the number of NCAA senior student-athletes drafted by a United States professional league in these sports was divided by the estimated number of high school seniors participating interscholastically in these sports. All probabilities were multiplied by 100 to convert them to percentages.

Obviously, many assumptions and estimations are made in the process of calculating these figures. Therefore, the reader should not consider these figures to be exact, but instead should view these figures as educated calculations.

Summary Table

Student Athletes

Men's Basketball

Women's Basketball

Football

Baseball

Men's Ice Hockey

Men's Soccer

High School Student Athletes

546,335

452,929

1,071,775

470,671

36,263

358,935

High School Senior Student Athletes

156,096

129,408

306,221

134,477

10,361

102,553

NCAA Student Athletes

16,571

15,096 61,252 28,767 3,973 19,793

NCAA Freshman Roster Positions

4,735 4,313 17,501 8,219 1,135 5,655

NCAA Senior Student Athletes

3,682 3,355 13,612 6,393 883 4,398

NCAA Student Athletes Drafted

44 32 250 600 33 76

Percent High School to NCAA

3.0% 3.3% 5.7% 6.1% 11.0% 5.5%

Percent NCAA to Professional

1.2% 1.0% 1.8% 9.4% 3.7% 1.7%

Percent High School to Professional

0.03% 0.02% 0.08% 0.45% 0.32% 0.07%

 

Note: These percentages are based on estimated data and should be considered approximations of the actual percentages.

 

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